Security Over Politics: Why Kenyan 's Must Rethink the June 25 Protests

As geopolitical tensions between Iran and Western powers reach new heights, Kenya finds itself increasingly exposed—not just diplomatically, but militarily and domestically. Manda Bay, the coastal U.S. military base in Lamu, serves as AFRICOM’s command center for operations across the Great Lakes region, and is now well within the missile range of Iran's growing arsenal. If Tehran chooses to strike outside the Middle East, Kenya, a non-NATO major ally of the United States, may be viewed as a soft target.

This possibility is no longer hypothetical.

According to a classified intelligence bulletin issued by the National Intelligence Service (NIS), hostile elements may already be positioning themselves inside the country. The agency has warned that ongoing political protests in Nairobi—especially the June 25 demonstrations led by Gen Z—may be infiltrated by radicalized terrorist groups, including operatives with sympathies to Iran. Their goal? To exploit civil unrest to strike Western diplomatic missions, civilians, and Kenyan police officers in a calculated act of revenge for recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian assets.

An excerpt from the intercepted communications shared by NIS paints a chilling picture:

“Our analysis indicates that hostile actors are planning to use explosives and Molotov cocktails to target police officers and vulnerable areas including diplomatic missions. Operatives aligned with Iran or sympathetic to its cause are preparing to embed within protest groups. Their objectives: revenge strikes against U.S., Israeli, and allied interests—Kenya included.”

As a result, Kenya has been placed on its highest security alert. Multi-agency operations are underway. Airports, foreign embassies, and major public gathering points have received urgent reinforcement, and surveillance has intensified across Nairobi and strategic coastal regions.

While the legitimate frustrations behind the planned June 25 protests deserve long-term engagement, this is not the time for large-scale public gatherings that risk turning into security disasters. What began as a movement for accountability now risks becoming a battlefield for proxy wars.

This is a pivotal moment for Kenya. Postponing the June 25 protests is not surrender—it’s strategy. It signals that we are mature enough to prioritize national security, even as we fight for justice. It also denies hostile actors the cover of chaos they so desperately need.

Kenya must act like the regional power it is. That means securing Manda Bay, protecting our civilians, strengthening diplomatic channels, and showing our enemies that we are alert, united, and unafraid—but never reckless.

Kenya’s alliance with the U.S. as a non-NATO major partner makes us both a friend and a proxy in their wider conflict. The risk of retaliation, both overt and covert, is real as Kenya is within the range of Iranian missile targets.

This is why we must act wisely. We can still fight for accountability, but we must not invite chaos that creates room for terror. A temporary postponement of the June 25 protests sends a powerful message: we are not naïve to the global risks swirling around us. We choose security now, so we can reclaim our future later.

Let us choose wisdom over war. Pause the protests. Secure the nation. Sometimes, patriotism means pausing—not retreating.